No taxes on Social Security benefits, Trump promised, but experts caution it's premature to count on that change.
- President-elect Donald Trump has promised to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits.
- Even with a Republican majority in Congress, that proposal could face hurdles.
- It is not yet appropriate to incorporate that change into financial plans, according to experts.
During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump pledged to exempt retirees from paying taxes on their Social Security benefits.
With Trump's re-election, Social Security beneficiaries may question if changes to their benefits will occur.
Even with a Republican majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, it may be challenging to eliminate taxes, as any modifications to Social Security would necessitate at least 60 Senate votes, necessitating bipartisan support.
Experts warn that removing taxes on benefits without making up for the revenue loss would worsen the program's funding problems.
According to Charles Blahous, senior research strategist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and former public trustee for Social Security and Medicare, it is difficult to envision Democrats supporting a vote that would enable them to surpass the 60-vote threshold and jeopardize the financial stability of Social Security.
He remarked that many Republicans would likely feel uncomfortable with it as well.
The presidential election is causing some Americans to engage in "doom spending."
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found in a recent report that ending taxes on Social Security benefits, along with other Trump proposals to end taxes on tips and overtime, impose tariffs and deport immigrants, would "dramatically worsen" Social Security's finances.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has been criticized by the Trump campaign as "consistently wrong" in a statement to CNBC when the report was released.
On Wednesday, the campaign did not respond to a request for comment on the proposal's status on Trump's priority list following his inauguration.
According to recent research, the Social Security trust fund, which is used to pay retirement benefits, is projected to run out in 2033. At that time, beneficiaries may see across-the-board benefit cuts. However, the president may have the ability to determine how those reductions are distributed among beneficiaries.
Higher-income seniors would benefit most
According to experts, removing taxes on Social Security benefits would primarily benefit the wealthy.
According to an August analysis from the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, households with incomes between $63,000 and $200,000 would benefit the most from the change.
Households with an annual income of $32,000 or less will not receive a tax cut, as most of their Social Security benefits are not taxed. On the other hand, those with an annual income between $32,000 and $60,000 may see a tax cut of approximately $90.
Blahous stated that providing tax breaks to the higher-income senior population may reduce its political appeal.
Up to 85% of Social Security benefits may be taxed based on an individual's or married couple's income, which is determined using a formula called combined income, which is the sum of adjusted gross income, nontaxable interest, and half of Social Security benefits.
If an individual's combined income is over $34,000, they may face up to 85% in taxes on their benefits. For married couples, this applies if their combined income exceeds $44,000.
Individuals earning between $25,000 and $34,000, or married couples with combined income between $32,000 and $44,000, may be subject to paying taxes on up to 50% of their benefits.
As the thresholds remain unchanged, an increasing amount of Social Security benefit income will be subject to income taxes in the future.
Financial advisors advise against factoring in the elimination of taxes on benefits into financial plans at this time.
David Haas, a certified financial planner and owner of Cereus Financial Advisors in Franklin Lakes, New Jersey, stated that it is difficult to predict the law or policy because it has not been properly drafted and adopted yet.
"I wouldn't jump to any conclusions," he said.
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