In 2024, it is predicted that Thanksgiving meals will be more affordable due to a decrease in turkey prices.

• According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, a "classic" Thanksgiving meal for 10 in 2024 is estimated to cost about $58, which is approximately 5% less than the 2023 cost.
• Turkey prices had the largest impact on that decline.
• Food inflation overall has decreased significantly from pandemic-era highs.

Gathering with loved ones, expressing gratitude for life's abundance, and indulging in food are the essence of Thanksgiving.

It appears that Americans are experiencing a decrease in grocery expenses for Thanksgiving this year after several years of rising costs.

The cost of a classic Thanksgiving feast for a group of 10 people in 2024 is estimated to be $58.08, which is 5% lower than in 2023 and 9% lower than in 2022, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The ingredients for Thanksgiving dinner include turkey, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and crusts, whipping cream, and whole milk.

The Farm Bureau stated that the prices for the food basket reached a record high in 2022, amounting to $64.05.

In 2024, households that include ham, russet potatoes, and frozen green beans in their shopping carts will on average spend $77.34, which is an 8% decrease from the previous year, according to the Farm Bureau.

A recent Deloitte survey found that nearly half of people hosting Thanksgiving this year are worried about the cost of the event, with 44% expressing concern.

The decline in U.S. food inflation is largely due to supply-and-demand dynamics driving down prices for key staples, such as turkey, according to economists.

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"Robin Wenzel, head of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, stated that food inflation has been relatively low. "There's some good relief there," he said."

The cost of a classic Thanksgiving meal has increased by 19% since 2019, according to the Farm Bureau.

Bernt Nelson, a Farm Bureau economist, stated that while declines may not completely eliminate the significant growth we experienced, they still have a considerable impact.

Turkey has been a 'curious item'

The biggest impact on the overall cost of a Thanksgiving meal this year was the price movements of turkey, according to Nelson. Specifically, a 16-pound bird accounts for 44% of the total grocery bill.

The cost of a 16-pound turkey has decreased by 6% from 2023, while overall turkey prices have fallen by 4% in the past year, according to the Farm Bureau and the consumer price index.

Turkey has been a "curious item this year," Nelson said.

According to Nelson, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that the number of turkeys raised by farmers in 2024 was about 205 million, which is a 6% decrease from the previous year. This figure is the lowest since 1985.

The deaths of about 14 million turkeys since 2022 are largely due to the impact of bird flu, a lethal and contagious disease among birds, he said.

If supply decreases while demand remains constant, prices will increase. However, this year, both supply and demand have decreased, causing turkey consumption per capita to fall by one pound.

The aggregate impact has been lower turkey prices.

Weather and labor impacts

Nelson stated that whole milk, a crucial element in many recipes, experienced a significant price drop of 14%.

The favorable weather conditions in the U.S. for dairy cattle have contributed to their wellbeing and the growth of crops they consume, which in turn has increased milk production, according to Nelson.

Of course, not everything is cheaper.

The Farm Bureau reported that prices for processed products like dinner rolls and cubed stuffing increased more than 8% from 2023. This is mainly due to non-food-related inflation, such as labor costs, which led to an increase in prices "for partners across the food supply chain," the group said in its analysis.

During the pandemic era, apart from labor costs, several factors contributed to the increase in grocery prices.

In 2022, food prices increased at a faster rate than any year since 1979, partly due to a bird-flu outbreak that affected egg and poultry prices, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbated other economy-wide inflationary pressures, such as high energy costs, according to the USDA.

According to experts, the increase in energy costs, including gasoline and diesel fuel, leads to higher prices throughout the food supply chain, including the distribution of groceries to store shelves.

The USDA reported that food price growth slowed in 2023 due to a decrease in wholesale food prices and other inflationary factors, and this trend has continued into 2024.

How to trim Thanksgiving costs

In 2024, consumers can save money on their Thanksgiving meal by choosing between store brands and name brands for specific grocery items, as suggested by Wenzel of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.

According to a Wells Fargo analysis, a menu of entirely store-brand items to serve 10 friends and family members would result in a total savings of $17.

Not all name-brand items are worth the premium price this year.

On average, store-brand cranberries are less expensive than name-brand cranberries, according to Wenzel.

Doing some research is crucial when shopping this year, according to Wenzel.