Experts predict that the S&P 500's nearly 30% yearly return is unlikely to persist.
- Nearly 30% of the S&P 500's value has been gained this year.
- Financial advisors advised investors to be cautious and not to expect such years to occur frequently.
Despite your feelings about the world, you're probably content with the stock market.
The is up nearly 30% this year so far.
Cathy Curtis, a certified financial planner and the founder and CEO of Curtis Financial Planning in Oakland, California, advised investors to manage their expectations and recognize that years like this one are uncommon.
CNBC's Advisor Council member Curtis stated that the stock market has consistently delivered an average annualized return of over 10% for many years.
She stated that the growth rate from the previous year was significantly higher and it was highly unlikely to sustain for an extended period.
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In only 17 out of the past 74 years, the S&P 500's return has been greater than 2024's, according to Morningstar Direct. For instance, in 1954, the S&P 500 experienced a growth of more than 52%, while it returned approximately 31% in 1989.
The financial services firm examined the increase in the index from 1950 to more than 29.24% and its exact return as of the end of Wednesday in 2024.
Multiple years in a row of significant gains are even rarer.
In 2023, the S&P 500 experienced a more than 24% increase, and if it rises this year by more than 20%, it would mark only the third time in the past century that there have been consecutive gains of that magnitude, as per Deutsche Bank.
Curtis advised that even though the market returns are not expected to be as high in the future, it doesn't mean you should sell your stocks.
To maximize the advantage of the annualized return, it is recommended to remain invested.
A healthy market is indicated by fluctuations, and you will gain if you remain invested.
In 2008, the S&P 500 dropped over 36%, but in 2022, it only fell over 18%.
Allan Roth, a CFP and accountant at Wealth Logic in Colorado Springs, Colorado, stated that "we have 'recency bias,' which leads to the expectation that recent performance will continue."
According to Roth, statistically, returning to the average is much more probable.
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