Experts attribute the 5% decline in college enrollment among 18-year-old freshmen to FAFSA failures.

• The number of 18-year-old college freshmen enrolling at four-year schools has decreased by 5% compared to the previous year, particularly among low-income students, according to a report from the National Student Clearing House Research Center.
• Executive Director Doug Shapiro called the decline "startling."

This year, fewer high school students obtained a four-year degree due to the botched rollout of the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, according to new research. Experts attribute this decline to the difficulties faced during the application process.

The number of 18-year-old college freshmen decreased by 5% this fall compared to the previous year, with four-year colleges experiencing the largest decline, according to a new analysis by the National Student Clearing House Research Center.

The report found that four-year colleges serving low-income students experienced the most significant declines in first-year student enrollment, with a drop of over 10% among those where a large share of students receive Pell Grants.

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Since the start of the pandemic in 2020, there has been a significant drop in freshmen enrollment, marking the first decline since the pandemic began, according to Doug Shapiro, the executive director of the National Student Clearing House Research Center.

'Aftermath of the FAFSA fiasco'

Financial aid experts had warned that issues with the new FAFSA would lead to a decrease in the number of students applying for financial aid and enrolling in college.

The FAFSA fiasco led to a 5% drop in freshman enrollment this fall, reversing previous gains, according to higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz.

In September, Jenzabar/Spark451 surveyed over 5,400 recent high school graduates and found that 45% of college applicants experienced frustrations with the process while 12% ultimately opted for a community college, technical school, or alternative due to their FAFSA experience.

According to the National College Attainment Network, submitting a FAFSA is a reliable indicator of whether a high school senior will attend college. In fact, seniors who complete the FAFSA are 84% more likely to enroll in college immediately following high school, as found in an NCAN study using 2013 data.

The relationship between completing the FAFSA and enrolling in college is generally consistent, according to Bill DeBaun, NCAN's senior director.

The U.S. Department of Education spokesperson stated that they are still devoted to aiding students in obtaining the financial assistance required to attend college and expressed gratitude towards the guidance counselors, financial aid experts, and the network of individuals and organizations who devoted significant time, energy, and expertise to assist with this year's college and financial aid application processes.

Kantrowitz stated that the Supreme Court's ruling against affirmative action was "a possible contributing factor."

The affirmative action ban may have negatively affected the enrollment of underrepresented minority students at the most selective colleges, he said.

Despite a decrease in enrollment among all racial groups of freshmen, the disparities were more pronounced at highly selective colleges, with White enrollment dropping by 5% and Black enrollment plummeting 16.9%, according to the National Student Clearing House Research Center.

Kantrowitz stated that some students may have enrolled in Historically Black Colleges and Universities or minority serving institutions, while others may have shifted enrollment to community colleges, which are lower cost, due to delays in receiving financial aid offers.

'This is not a blip'

According to DeBaun, FAFSA completion rates are a measure of students' intent to re-enroll, particularly among low-income undergraduates, as the FAFSA is the key to accessing federal funds such as loans, work-study, and grants.

The 2025-26 FAFSA opened early with minor issues, but it will be more challenging to reach students from the Class of 2024 who opted out of college this year.

This is not a minor issue, but a significant setback as rising college costs and growing student debt balances are causing more students to question the value of college education.

More students qualify for federal aid

The Pell Grant eligibility was expanded to provide more financial support to low- and middle-income families through the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid.

Due to modifications in the financial aid application process, a larger number of students are now eligible for a Pell Grant, which is exclusively based on financial need.

This year, over 13% more students are on track to receive Pell Grants, while 5% more students are receiving federal financial aid, according to recent data from the Department of Education.

The number of Pell Grant recipients has decreased significantly over the past decade. In 2011-12, 9.4 million students received grants, while in 2023-24, the number dropped by 32% to 6.4 million, according to the College Board, which monitors trends in college pricing and student aid.

The maximum Pell Grant award has increased to $7,395 for the 2023-34 academic year, but those grants have not kept up with the rising cost of a four-year degree.

The cost of attending a four-year private college in the 2024-25 school year was $58,600, an increase from $56,390 in the previous year. Meanwhile, the cost of attending a four-year in-state public college also increased, from $24,080 to $24,920, according to the College Board.