Egg prices could potentially reach record highs, according to a supplier's prediction.

• Egg prices could potentially reach record highs again, approximately two years after they reached their peak during the pandemic period.
• The highly contagious bird flu has resulted in the deaths of millions of chickens and decreased egg production. Consumers' egg demand peaks during Thanksgiving and Christmas.
• The trajectory of the bird flu outbreak is unclear.

The déjà vu experience for grocery shoppers is the recent increase in the price of Grade A eggs, which has occurred just two years after egg prices reached unprecedented heights.

Since November 2023, the average retail price of eggs in the U.S. has increased by 38%, with a 8% increase occurring last month alone, according to consumer price index data released on Wednesday.

In November, the cost of a carton of a dozen large Grade A eggs was $3.65, an increase from $2.14 the previous year, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The surge in demand for eggs during the winter holiday season is due to two main factors: a decrease in egg supply due to bird flu, and strong consumer demand, according to economists and market analysts.

Eggs Unlimited vice president Brian Moscogiuri stated that there is a significant possibility of reaching record highs for prices.

In January 2023, the price of Grade A eggs reached a high of $4.82 per dozen, up from $1.93 in the previous January.

During the pandemic, eggs stood out as a high-inflation item, with an annual rate of 60% in 2022, according to CPI data. They even gained cultural significance, with Taylor Swift mentioning them at the Grammy Awards in February 2023 as a way to help lower their prices.

How a 'serious' bird flu outbreak is affecting egg prices

In 2022-23, bird flu is a major cause of concern.

The U.S. is currently experiencing a "serious outbreak" of bird flu, which is a highly contagious and deadly disease among birds, including chickens, according to Moscogiuri.

Bird flu has persisted in the U.S. since its arrival in late 2021, according to experts. The last time the disease affected egg-laying chickens at commercial farms was in 2015, Moscogiuri stated.

Inflation breakdown for November 2024 in one chart.

In 2024, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that 33 million commercial egg layers were killed due to bird flu.

An egg supply shortage has been caused, according to Ryan Hojnowski, an egg analyst at Expana, an agricultural market research firm.

Since Oct. 15, roughly half of the commercial egg layer deaths for 2024, which is approximately 15 million birds, have been reported, according to CDC data. Additionally, wholesale egg prices have increased by 97% since mid-October, as per Expana.

"If one bird is infected, it's likely that all the birds nearby will be infected in a short time," said Andrew Novakovic, a professor of agricultural economics at Cornell SC Johnson College of Business.

Thanksgiving, Christmas holidays raise egg demand

The peak season for consumer demand coincides with the egg supply shortage.

During the Q4 period, there is typically the highest demand for eggs due to consumers' tendency to bake around the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, according to Hojnowski.

High demand and reduced supply have combined to lift prices, experts said.

Novakovic stated that once we surpass the holiday influence, I believe there will be some [price] fluctuations.

But the trajectory is difficult to predict, experts said.

The staying power of bird flu is uncertain, as there have been recent outbreaks in U.S. dairy cows and several recent human cases in U.S. dairy and poultry workers. Despite this, the current public health risk is considered low, according to the CDC website.

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture mandated testing of the U.S. milk supply for bird flu, in an effort to monitor and control the virus.

As any infectious disease is unpredictable, it's challenging to accurately forecast its progression, according to Novakovic.