Education research group corrects data error: Freshmen college enrollment actually rose, not fell.

• According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, contrary to its previous report, the number of freshmen enrolling in college during the fall increased.
• The incorrect calculations were attributed to a "methodological error" by the education research firm.

In fall 2024, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reported that freshmen college enrollment increased, contrary to its previous report that the enrollment declined.

The preliminary enrollment report, released in October, contained a "methodological error" that led to the miscalculation, as stated by Executive Director Doug Shapiro in a Monday statement.

Shapiro wrote that the error in research methodology led to the mislabeling of some students as dual-enrolled instead of freshmen, resulting in an undercount of freshmen and an overcount of dual-enrolled students.

The October report revealed that both two- and four-year institutions experienced a decline in freshman enrollment, with a steeper drop observed at four-year colleges where a significant number of students receive Pell Grants.

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"Shapiro wrote that the new research shows an increase in freshman enrollment this fall, which is not based on preliminary data and uses different methodologies to determine freshman enrollees."

The center announced that the final freshmen enrollment numbers will be released on January 23.

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Shapiro stated that the center is conducting a comprehensive investigation to determine the underlying cause of the error and put in place measures to prevent similar incidents from happening in the future.

The center's updated analysis reveals a 3% increase in overall undergraduate enrollment in the fall of 2023 compared to the same period in 2023. Additionally, enrollment was higher at four-year colleges where a significant number of students receive Pell Grants.

Updated data from the National Student Clearinghouse indicates a rise in freshman enrollment this school year, which has brought relief and encouragement to U.S. Under Secretary of Education James Kvaal, as he stated in a statement.

Kvaal stated that the increase in federal aid recipients this year is consistent with what is being observed on the financial aid side, with more than 5% of students receiving aid.

Financial aid experts had cautioned that issues with the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid could lead to a decrease in the number of students applying for financial aid and enrolling in college.

Due to changes in the FAFSA, more students are now eligible for a Pell Grant, which is awarded solely based on financial need.

'We are not out of the woods'

Although the new FAFSA has brought some improvements, Mark Kantrowitz, a higher education expert, stated that "we are not out of the woods yet."

"Although the new FAFSA form was intended to simplify the application process for low-income and first-generation college students, it has not yet met its goal of increasing the number of applications. While this year's form is an improvement, there is still much that needs to be done to make it easier for students to apply."

The FAFSA for 2025-26 was released early by the U.S. Department of Education with the aim of enhancing college access.

The Common Application, an online college application platform, reported that the total college application volume for the 2024-25 season increased by 8% compared to the previous year.

Kantrowitz, who is not associated with the National Student Clearing House Research Center, stated that errors on the part of the research group are "extremely uncommon."