A market strategist believes that economists have been mistaken about the recession.
- At the Financial Advisor Summit Tuesday, David Zervos of Jefferies and Barbara Doran, CEO of BD8 Capital Partners, discuss the possibility of further rate cuts.
- If the first Trump administration is a guide, inflation is likely to be low.
It is predicted that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by a quarter point at the end of its upcoming two-day conference.
"David Zervos, chief market strategist for Jefferies LLC, stated during CNBC's Financial Advisor Summit on Tuesday that three out of four economists were incorrect in predicting a recession two years ago."
The economy is still growing and inflation has come down, he said.
In October, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation was 2.3%, or 2.8% when excluding food and energy prices, according to the latest reading. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed found that the fourth quarter is on track to post a 3.3% annualized growth rate for gross domestic product.
Zervos stated that he believes the market is spending an excessive amount of time considering the inflationary effects of immigration or trade policies.
Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, commended the U.S. economy last week and stated that it offered policymakers the flexibility to proceed gradually as they adjusted their policies.
During the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit, Barbara Doran, CEO of BD8 Capital Partners, stated that by most indicators, 2025 is expected to remain positive.
""The prognosis for economic growth next year is good," Doran stated."
The challenge of implementing President-elect Donald Trump's fiscal policy remains when he starts his second term.
On the other hand, Zervos stated that "we've got a lot of deregulation coming," which he referred to as a "huge disinflationary tailwind."
"Rewind the tape to 2019 and let's start from there," Zervos suggested.
During the last Trump administration, there was little inflation, according to him. He stated that they never left the 2% range, which makes him optimistic about inflation.
The proposed tariffs by Trump could increase consumer prices by nearly 1%, according to Goldman's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, in a note last month.
"Doran stated that although it is still uncertain, it will ultimately lead to inflation, which will negatively impact the lowest income consumers who are already struggling."
If inflation rises, it may postpone additional rate cuts after the December meeting, as predicted by her. Similarly, other experts anticipate the Fed will slow down its rate-cutting pace in 2025.
Investing
You might also like
- Equifax to pay $15 million in fines for credit report errors
- The IRS' Direct File program is now available in 25 states, but it remains under Republican scrutiny.
- Nearly $189 billion in student loan forgiveness announced by Biden in final round.
- Eligible California wildfire victims can receive a one-time $770 payment. Here's how to qualify.
- In 2025, the child tax credit could undergo some changes.