After last week's Trump-Fed rally, the stock market will be driven by two key factors.

After last week's Trump-Fed rally, the stock market will be driven by two key factors.
After last week's Trump-Fed rally, the stock market will be driven by two key factors.

Talk about an eventful week.

Typically, when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it would be considered a significant news event.

Tuesday's presidential election was more significant than Thursday's Federal Reserve meeting, as it resulted in a winner before the sun rose the next day.

hide content

The stock market experienced a rapid and intense reaction to Donald Trump's victory over Kamala Harris on Wednesday, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite reaching new all-time highs. The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates the following day further boosted market bulls, resulting in gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained flat. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 44,000 for the first time ever, while the S&P 500 topped 6,000 for the first time ever. Despite these milestones, all three stock benchmarks finished the week just below their record-breaking highs at the close.

This week, the Dow and S&P 500 experienced their best weeks of the year and their first positive weeks in three. The Nasdaq also rose, with a 5.7% gain, which was its strongest since September. The top five sectors for the week were consumer discretionary, energy, industrials, financials, and information technology.

  • We sold shares of industrial laggard three times last week, reducing our position to levels that Jim Cramer said won't harm us. On Wednesday, when both the already running S&P 500 and NASDAQ surged double-digits on a percentage basis after the Trump win, our discipline called for us to take some profits, which we did. BlackRock, one of our newer positions, did not participate in Wednesday's rally in financials, so we took some of the bank stock proceeds and bought more shares of the world's biggest asset manager.

Last weekend, we stated that the market risk was not primarily determined by the winner, but rather by the decisiveness of the victory. This is precisely what occurred.

While the presidential race was decided quickly and the Republicans flipped the Senate, there were still House races too close to call, according to NBC News. As of Sunday afternoon, Republicans needed to win six of them to capture the majority. However, Wall Street has traditionally preferred gridlock in Washington, which can occur when Congress is split or when the White House and Capitol Hill are controlled by different parties. The specific combination remains uncertain.

The balance of power in the stock market is uncertain, but one thing is clear: Trump evaluates his performance based on market gains. During his first term, the S&P 500 increased by 67% from Inauguration Day 2017 to his final day in office. Biden and Harris are expected to pass the baton to Trump of a robust economy with controlled inflation and a thriving stock market.

In the upcoming week, two government inflation reports will be closely monitored by Wall Street and the Fed. As earnings season comes to a close, only two Club names, namely and , will release their quarterly results.

Economy

The October consumer price index, which is a significant economic report for the week, will be released before Wednesday's opening bell. According to FactSet's estimates, economists anticipate a 2.6% annual increase in headline CPI, which is slightly higher than in September. The core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 3.3% on a year-over-year basis, matching the prior month. The shelter component of the CPI, which accounts for approximately one-third of the entire index, will also be closely watched due to the persistence of housing inflation costs.

  • The October producer price index, which will be released on Thursday, could impact the markets. Despite not being as closely monitored as the CPI, the monthly PPI readings are still important to track as they reflect wholesale prices that companies pay, commonly referred to as input costs, and whether they need to raise consumer prices to maintain their profit margins. According to FactSet, economists anticipate a 2.3% annual increase in the headline PPI and a 2.9% year-over-year increase in the core rate.
  • This week, retail sales and industrial production are both released on Friday. Retail sales offer a glimpse into consumer behavior and their spending habits leading up to the holiday season. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of the US economy. The monthly industrial production and capacity utilization report provide insight into the manufacturing industry, which has been facing challenges, as well as the mining, electric, and gas utilities industries.

Earnings

We want to hear what management sees in the housing market regarding Home Depot's third-quarter earnings before the opening bell on Tuesday.

hide content

Although longer-term bond yields have been increasing and pushing up mortgage rates, the potential benefits of stronger housing leading to more sales of building and renovation products may still be delayed. We were hopeful to see bond yields decrease on Thursday and Friday after they spiked on Wednesday. We anticipate that this trend will continue with the Fed in easing mode and market odds favoring another rate cut in December.

  • The recovery process after hurricanes Helene and Milton is expected to boost Home Depot sales, with insurance claims driving demand for rebuilding materials. However, we are waiting for the housing market to recover before predicting a significant increase in sales. As of Friday, consensus estimates forecast Home Depot sales of $39.24 billion in the third quarter and earnings of $3.64 per share.
hide content

Disney's business experiences will be in focus on Thursday as it reports before the bell, due to recent hurricane activity that forced closures at Florida theme park locations and inflation-weary consumers. Disneyland Paris may experience some negative impact from the Summer Olympics, which were held in the city during the quarter.

  • Disney's direct-to-consumer business should improve profitability, and big content releases like "The Bear" and "Inside Out 2" should help with subscriber numbers. As of Friday, consensus estimates are for Disney sales of $22.44 billion in fiscal Q4 and earnings of $1.10 per share.

Here are the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust:

You will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade as a member of the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has discussed a stock on Biz Focus Hub, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.

The information provided by the above investing club is subject to our terms and conditions, privacy policy, and disclaimer. No fiduciary obligation or duty is created by virtue of receiving any information provided in connection with the investing club. No specific outcome or profit is guaranteed.

by Zev Fima

CNBC Investing Club