Central banks worldwide have a busy week ahead, with several rate adjustments planned.

Central banks worldwide have a busy week ahead, with several rate adjustments planned.
Central banks worldwide have a busy week ahead, with several rate adjustments planned.
  • The upcoming two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve, starting on Tuesday, will be the focus of attention.
  • On Wednesday, Brazil's central bank will hold its next policy meeting, while the Bank of England, Norges Bank of Norway, and South Africa's Reserve Bank will all meet on Thursday.
  • The Bank of Japan will conclude a week of central bank meetings with its latest rate decision on Friday.

The upcoming two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve, starting on Tuesday, will be the focus of attention.

It is anticipated that the U.S. central bank will follow suit with other global institutions and commence its own rate-cutting cycle. The sole uncertainty seems to be the magnitude of the reduction in rates the Fed will implement.

The CME's FedWatch Tool shows that while traders expect a quarter-point cut, 41% anticipate a half-point move.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, Brazil's central bank will hold its next policy meeting, while the Bank of England, Norges Bank of Norway, and South Africa's Reserve Bank will follow on Thursday.

Fed most likely to cut rates by quarter point, says former Cleveland Fed pres. Loretta Mester

John Bilton, global head of multi-asset strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, stated on CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday that they are entering a cutting phase.

Before the European Central Bank's latest quarter-point rate cut, Bilton predicted that the Fed would also reduce interest rates by 25 basis points this week. Additionally, the Bank of England may join in the action after the U.K. economy remained stagnant for two consecutive months in July.

"Bilton stated on CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" that we possess all the necessary components for a cutting cycle that is unlikely to be linked to a recession, which is an unusual arrangement."

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Fed decision

In recent weeks, policymakers at the Fed have prepared for potential interest rate cuts by establishing a foundation. Currently, the Fed's target rate is set at 5.25% to 5.5%.

Some economists contend that the Fed should reduce interest rates by 50 basis points in September, asserting that the central bank has previously overstepped with monetary policy tightening.

Instead of describing the move as "very dangerous" for markets, others have suggested that the central bank should deliver a 25 basis point rate cut.

We'd 'love' to see a 50-basis-point cut by the Fed, analyst says — here's why

Volpe stated that doing 50 next week is primarily a safety mechanism to prevent negative events from occurring between the November meeting and the seven weeks in between.

The Fed is currently behind the curve, so we suggest they take proactive measures to get ahead of the situation. We propose they implement the 50 now and make a decision regarding November and December. Perhaps they could do a 25 at that time.

Brazil and UK

The central bank of Brazil, which has reduced interest rates multiple times since July 2020, is expected to increase interest rates in September due to better-than-expected economic performance in the second quarter.

He stated that the possibility of additional rate increases in 2025 cannot be definitively ruled out and will be contingent on the level of domestic activity in Q4/24.

In August, the central bank made its first interest rate reduction in over four years.

According to Ruben Segura Cayuela, head of European economics at the Bank of America, there will be no quarterly cuts from here next week, as he believes there is a 7-2 vote against it.

South Africa, Norway and Japan

The Norwegian central bank, Norges Bank, is set to hold its next meeting on Thursday. In August, the bank kept its interest rate at a 16-year high of 4.5% and stated that the policy rate would likely remain at that level for an extended period.

Despite the majority of economists predicting an increase in interest rates by year-end, the Bank of Japan is not anticipated to make any changes at the end of the week.

by Sam Meredith

Markets