After GM's capital markets day, investors should be aware of the following information.

After GM's capital markets day, investors should be aware of the following information.
After GM's capital markets day, investors should be aware of the following information.
  • GM showcased its all-electric and traditional internal combustion engine vehicles during its Investor Day, aiming to demonstrate its competitive advantage and surpass industry and Wall Street expectations.
  • The company will prioritize scale, capital efficiency, and cost discipline, as stated by CEO Mary Barra.
  • Despite the event, several Wall Street analysts maintained their optimism and ratings for the automaker, but expressed a need for more details about its overall strategy.

DETROIT — Wall Street reacted to investor day on Tuesday with a shrug.

Despite using the Detroit automaker's event to highlight broad, near-term updates to the company's operations, executives failed to boost the company's stock price amid challenging market and economic conditions.

GM anticipates outperforming the industry and exceeding Wall Street's expectations with its all-electric and traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. The company expects to enhance profits for both types of vehicles as it aims to achieve adjusted earnings next year that are equivalent to 2024.

Our success in the industry will be determined by our focus on scale, capital efficiency, and cost discipline, as these factors will set us apart from our past performance, as stated by GM CEO Mary Barra during a three-hour event from the company's manufacturing operations in Spring Hill, Tennessee.

Reuss, GM's president, criticized traditional crosstown rivals and said that the company doesn't need a "skunkworks" team to develop affordable EVs like Ford. He also stated that cutting to profitability, like Stellantis, doesn't work.

Despite GM's leadership in domestic EV production and profitability of its traditional vehicles, investors have not adequately rewarded the company.

Despite the event, several Wall Street analysts maintained their optimism and ratings for the automaker, but expressed a need for more details about its overall strategy.

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Daniel Roeska, a Bernstein analyst, wrote in an investor note on Wednesday that GM's investor day highlighted the company's current accomplishments but lacked strategy.

While the event was lacking in specifics, it strengthened GM's competitive edge compared to other companies.

Although GM's Investor Day yesterday did not reveal any significant changes in strategy, it emphasized the company's balanced and practical approach, which involves a careful blend of increasing EV production while maintaining a strong focus on execution, cost control, and generating strong shareholder returns, according to Levy in a Wednesday investor note.

Despite recent downgrades and price target adjustments by Wall Street analysts, GM's stock remains up nearly 30% this year, with shares closing Tuesday at $46.01.

Here are several topics investors should know from the event:

2025

According to CFO Paul Jacobson, GM anticipates its 2025 adjusted earnings to fall within a "similar range" to the company's current year's earnings.

The company's projected earnings before interest and taxes for 2024 are between $13 billion and $15 billion, or $9.50 and $10.50 per share, which is higher than the earlier guidance of $12.5 billion to $14.5 billion, or $9 to $10 per share.

In the first half of 2024, General Motors (GM) made $8.3 billion in EBIT-adjusted earnings and $6.4 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow.

Jacobson stated that GM's capital spending in 2025 is predicted to be consistent with this year's financial guidance, which anticipates a spending range of $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion.

Peak EV losses?

Jacobson stated that GM's earnings next year are projected to exhibit a reduction in losses for electric vehicles, with a decline ranging from $2 billion to $4 billion.

The savings from increased volume and emissions, as well as lower costs, including raw materials and battery production, will be used to fund the EV tailwinds next year for GM.

Barra stated that they believe their EV losses have reached their peak this year, and their primary focus is on enhancing profitability in the upcoming year.

GM expects to reduce battery costs by $30 per kilowatt hour next year, following a $60 reduction this year from 2023.

Barra stated that the automaker is expected to manufacture and sell approximately 200,000 EVs for North America in 2024, achieving profitability on a production or contribution-margin basis by the end of this year. This guidance is lower than the previous target of 250,000 EVs, which was reduced from an initial goal of 300,000 units.

Ultium

Ultium, the EV solution that GM once advertised as the ultimate solution, is now defunct.

GM will abandon the "Ultium" brand for its electric vehicle batteries and related technologies after years of promoting the name, as it reevaluates its EV and battery operations.

The company announced that the batteries and technologies will remain, but the name will be removed, except in production operations such as its "Ultium Cells" joint venture plants with LG Energy Solution.

Kurt Kelty, GM's vice president of battery, stated that the company plans to utilize a range of battery chemistries and cell designs.

"GM is adopting a multifaceted approach," he stated. "This will aid GM in maintaining its position as the leading producer of EV models among automakers."

ICE costs, profits

In the future, GM anticipates expanding its sales and profits from traditional vehicles powered by internal combustion engines (ICE).

Jacobson stated that the ICE industry is expected to have a long tail and will play a significant role in our future.

Some cost cutting measures, such as consolidation of parts and options, are expected to boost profit increases.

Reuss stated that GM is currently observing a 10% decrease in total part numbers per vehicle on average.

Shareholder returns

Jacobson stated that GM will continue to engage in share buybacks after the completion of a program this quarter that is predicted to retire approximately 250 million shares of the automaker.

Barra stated that GM will repay approximately $20 billion to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends from 2022 to the end of 2024.

According to FactSet, the automaker has more than 1.1 billion outstanding shares as of Wednesday morning. Jacobson stated that the company aims to reduce its outstanding shares to below 1 billion by early 2025.

Cruise and China

The Cruise autonomous vehicle unit and operations in China did not meet Wall Street's expectations.

The earnings of GM's operations in China have been declining for a decade, and executives are considering restructuring options with their partners in China.

This year in China, there will be a noticeable turnaround, as dealership inventory decreases and sales and market share show modest improvements, according to Barra.

GM stated that it does not anticipate its spending next year to surpass this year's amount. The company did not disclose any updates regarding its long-term plans for its struggling robotaxi business.

Wall Street analysts anticipated an update on GM's venture, particularly regarding future financing or capital spend, as GM's investor day was two days before Tesla's robotaxi day.

Other notes

  • Barra stated that the teams are making progress every week on the definitive agreements following GM's non-binding memorandum of understanding with Hyundai.
  • The next-generation Chevrolet Bolt EV, expected next year, will be only slightly higher in price than the 2023 Bolt, which began at $28,795.
  • GM has reaffirmed its plans to launch plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in 2027. However, Reuss stated that with only single-digit market share, GM is currently not missing out on anything without PHEVs.

— CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

by Michael Wayland

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